THE result of the elections in Germany should concern us all. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, once just a fringe movement, is now a formidable political force. It came second in the poll, with 22 per cent of the vote, and won most of the constituencies in poorer east Germany. Its surge in support underscores a broader instability sweeping through Europe.
Europe today is at a crossroads. Populist movements are on the rise in France, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, the Netherlands, and in the UK with Reform. This surge in nativist sentiment across the continent threatens to erode the post-war liberal order, replacing it with a patchwork of racist nationalisms.
Concern over this is heightened by the unpredictable foreign policy of President Trump. There is more to him than wild words. That is increasingly clear from the speed with which he is sacking individuals or dismantling institutions that he dislikes at home. Abroad, he seems intent on turning Russia from an enemy into an ally — a move that eerily mirrors Orwell’s dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four, in which the world’s three superstates — Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia — constantly switch alliances and wage perpetual war against one another.
If President Trump realigns the US with Russia — to create a Cold Peace as a counterweight to a Cold War with China — a fragmented Europe risks being squeezed between three major powers. When the elephants fight, the grass gets trampled, said the African proverb in the colonial era of Great Powers.
The AfD wants Germany to withdraw from both the EU and NATO. This would leave Europe dangerously exposed. Fragmenting Europe into nation-states plays into the hands of foreign adversaries. A strong Europe, with a unity of purpose, is our only effective counter-balance to the emerging geopolitical struggle between the US, Russia, and China — all of them now authoritarian.
Europe must position itself as the bulwark of democratic values and the international rule of law. Our principles of liberty, tolerance, care for minorities, and respect for human rights are rooted in both Christian morality and Enlightenment values. If populist forces such as the AfD are allowed to dismantle these foundations, the continent risks descending into chaos and irrelevance. A fragmented Europe would be incapable of countering the influence of authoritarian regimes and become susceptible to external manipulation.
Yet, to guard against that, mainstream political parties in Europe must recognise that simply condemning populism is not enough. They need to adjust their policies to accommodate some of the concerns raised by the citizens who vote for such parties.
The free-market globalisation embraced by the post-war Western Establishment destroyed the jobs and communities of many of those who now support far-Right political parties — those whom political pundits call “the Left Behind”, who now sense a cultural abandonment, too. Most disturbingly, as the AfD vote shows, that sense is increasingly shared by young people — and far more young men than young women — faced with a life that is less affluent and less secure than those that their parents enjoyed.
Addressing issues such as immigration, cultural values, and economic disenfranchisement in a way that aligns with democratic values is now crucial. If mainstream parties fail to address the concerns of the alienated, then Europe — the UK included — risks being overwhelmed by Trump-style populism.
