Despite diplomatic efforts, including shuttle diplomacy between Moscow, Kyiv, Riyadh, and Washington, alongside the freezing of military and intelligence support, we are no closer to a workable ceasefire than when President Trump assumed office.
Three key stakeholders—Russia, Ukraine, and the United States—hold vastly different positions.
The idea of a 30-day ceasefire holding to allow for more comprehensive negotiations remains highly unlikely.
United States: America advocates for peace but has not outlined a clear vision for what that entails. The US has ruled out deploying troops or assigning NATO a formal role in Ukraine‘s long-term security.
Russia: Regardless of any peace agreement it signs, Russia remains focused on securing all of Ukraine in the long term. A ceasefire would likely serve as an opportunity for Putin to rearm and regroup.
Ukraine: With ongoing international support, particularly from Britain, Ukraine sees little incentive to agree to any deal that would compromise its sovereignty and security.
Britain has demonstrated leadership in recognizing historical parallels with 1938 and the dangers of appeasement. As the US takes a step back and Russia intensifies its aggression,
We must not stop here. If any deal is signed on Russian terms – it will lead only lead to further war in Europe. It’s time for some Churchillian spirit in not to appease the bully.
Tobias Ellwood is a former British Army officer and Tory defence minister
