(LifeSiteNews) — The Trump administration’s current policy of defending Israel’s blockade of all food, water, medicine and energy from the two million civilians in Gaza, along with initiating heavy bombing on the Houthis in Yemen, risks “incalculable” fallout for the U.S., the region, and the world, according to a widely respected analytics expert.
This policy “seems beyond immoral,” said Alex Krainer, founder of Krainer Analytics. “They’re taking extremely reckless risks to escalate the war in the Middle East completely beyond control.”
“They’re bombing Yemen, but the real target is Iran. The fallout from escalating to a full-scale war against Iran is incalculable,” assessed the Croatian-born intellectual and author of several books.
Krainer has had a long and successful career as a hedge fund manager in Monaco and is well known for his expertise in predicting how global developments impact economies and societies, and was speaking in a Dialogue Works interview with host Nima Alkhorshid.
“What the Houthis were asking for was that the embargo, the blockade on Gaza be lifted, that humanitarian aid, food, water, electricity flow be restored to Gaza so that the people there don’t starve. That’s simple enough, that’s easy enough to understand,” he observed.
When the Houthis merely announced “they would close off the Red Sea to Israeli commercial vessels” until the humanitarian aid was restored to the Palestinians in Gaza, “almost immediately Donald Trump ordered the launch of attacks on Yemen.”
Having been quite supportive of Trump’s policies in the past, Krainer reasoned that “Donald Trump had a choice of leaning on Netanyahu and saying, ‘restore humanitarian aid to Gaza,’ and that would have been the end” of the Houthis’ interference with Israeli shipping. “But instead, Gaza is still under a blockade, people are still starving. Netanyahu even launched new bombardments of Gaza, and the United States started bombing Yemen.”
With Iran as the real target, “the United States would almost certainly be defeated in such a war; they could not prevail,” the author assessed. This is due, in part, to the fact Iran is no longer isolated but enjoys “full support from Russia and from China.”
Such a widespread Middle East conflict would likely instead “precipitate the destruction of Israel,” cause an oil blockade, “a disruption of oil flow from the Persian Gulf.”
And given the further high “likelihood that the Houthis would target Saudi oil production facilities,” the price of oil could thus “shoot up beyond $100 a barrel to maybe $200-300 a barrel. It would be a nuclear bomb underneath the global economy,” Krainer assessed with his very calm demeaner.
“So, the risks that the administration is taking versus simply telling Netanyahu to make sure that the aid, the food, the water, the medicines, the electricity continues to flow to these poor people of Gaza, they have (instead) opted for an escalation that could tun out of control very easily,” he said.
Support for Israel must end, or constant risks of escalating conflicts, even nuclear exchanges, will remain
Baffled by the recklessness of this policy, Krainer went on to consider what its proper cause may be and concluded it is likely the “very powerful political bloc among Zionist Jews and evangelical Christians,” a “faction that is fanatically devoted to Israel” demanding “unconditional support” for “Netanyahu no matter what.”
“We could say plausibly that may be true,” he continued. “But you know, Nima, you’re a father and I’m a father; when you see pictures of little children blown to bits, I don’t care if you’re Muslim or Christian or Jew or whatever. This is unacceptable.”
“I thought this was behind us with the departure of the Biden administration, but apparently it’s not behind us,” the analyst said.
Looking toward solutions, Krainer concluded that “continued support for Israel in the United States and in Western Europe is one of those moments of history that we need to be able to overcome.”
“Until that happens, until Israel is forced to make peace with its neighbor (the Palestinians) and become a normal country, whether there be a two-state solution or one-state solution, the region will not know peace. And if peace cannot be established, then at any point in time, there’s a risk that conflicts escalate beyond control.”
Escalation easy, extricating one’s nation from a conflict is what’s difficult
Noting that despite being a superpower the Americans had to pull out of Afghanistan in 2021, the U.S. is likely “to suffer the same fate in Yemen, only probably worse,” since the Houthis have the capacity to “sink the American aircraft carriers” that they don’t even have to do, as merely damaging their runways or control towers would render them “useless sitting ducks in the middle of the ocean.”
For this reason, he reported that it does seem the Americans “have started to move their aircraft carries a bit farther from the reach of Yemeni missiles and drones.”
Pointing out the dangers of this situation, the analyst said, “escalating to war is not difficult. It’s controlling what happens afterwards that is difficult and extricating yourself that is difficult.”
For example, “if the Houthis sink an American ship, it’s going to be extremely difficult for Trump to say, ‘Oh, that was a mistake, I guess, so we’re going to back off and we’re going to try to solve this through talks and diplomacy.”
“At that point, when you have dead sailors at the bottom of the ocean, hundreds or thousands of them, then you can no longer reverse course,” Krainer observed.
And with the abandonment of respectful dialogue with the Iranians, the author criticized the pattern of threats emanating from the Trump administration.
“It’s still the same continuation of an arrogant, hubristic policy that doesn’t go down well with anybody. And it’s only provoking resistance and revolt in all of the global south and elsewhere,” damaging the authentic interests of the United States around the world.
Having made enemies with all its neighbors, and internal instability, Israel likely to implode ‘like a house of cards’
Assessing the situation for Israel, Krainer said the Netanyahu government was “standing on very thin ice” while “being held aloft by support from American supporters of Israel,” which he thought is “a very, very unlikely thing to continue for a long time.”
“Israel has made enemies of all their neighbors,” including having made and broken three ceasefire agreements with three of them. “They haven’t defeated Hamas. They haven’t defeated Hezbollah. They have a hostile power at their doorstep in Syria (Turkey).”
“Houthis are an enemy power with the ability to strike at Israel. Iran has Israel through the crosshairs,” and “Netanyahu’s government now has a gathering opposition at home. He’s fighting multiple legal battles against his government,” the analyst warned.
For these reasons Krainer believes Netanyahu’s leadership “has a very short life expectancy. And I think that when he falls, which he will, it’s only a matter of time, then there’s a risk that Israel itself descends into some form of a civil war.”
The Israelis have “kind of painted themselves into a corner where they only see their way forward with taking more control, creating buffer zones, displacing population, engaging in genocide. I don’t see how long this can go on until it implodes like a house of cards,” he concluded.
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