Research has shown how Reform UK could make huge inroads at the next General Election thanks to a key statistic. A study by Paul Whiteley, Professor of Government at the University of Essex, into voters last July concluded that there was a strong negative relationship between the vote share of Nigel Farage’s party in each seat and the number of ballots spoiled in that constituency, as shown by a chart.
This means that in the places where people voted Reform, fewer citizens spoiled their ballots. Experts say that spoilt ballots can be put into one of two categories: those where the voter has make a mistake, and those not properly filled in in protest.
Professor Whiteley notes that most spoiled ballots in the UK are usually in the latter, with ballots often left completely blank, or containing names written in or messages denouncing parties or candidates. This hints that Reform may have gained votes from people who may have otherwise spolied their ballots or abstained from taking part in the election altogether.
If Mr Farage managed to persuade enough apathetic individuals to cast a ballot in favour of his party’s candidate, he could tip the balance in a number of constituencies.
Reform came second in 89 Labour seats across the country, and many of these were in the North East of England, Merseyside, Greater Manchester and the south of Wales.
There were 20 constituencies won by Sir Keir Starmer‘s party where Reform was within just 5,000 votes of winningLabourList highlights.
Current polling suggests that Labour and Reform are neck and neck on 24%, with the Tories on 22%.
In May, the local elections will provide a more detailed idea of what voters are really thinking around the country.
It has been suggested that Reform voters are relatively loyal, as a YouGov poll suggested recently that 90% of people who voted for Mr Farage’s party at the 2024 general election are considering doing so again.
But elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice recently said that Reform still largely operate in a “niche market”.
When asked by the Express earlier this month if his party is trying to broaden its scope, Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice said: “Well, of course, to win an election, absolutely.
“But we stick to our principles and our conviction. And I think that’s why we’re doing well.”
These ideals are being regularly espoused by Farage: “Family, community, country.”
