It has been a while since Democrats have assassinated a Republican president, but that peaceful interlude may be ending soon. You likely have heard about a survey report by the Network Contagion Research Institute and Rutgers University’s Social Perception Lab, which examines the growing tolerance for violence in American society. Or, rather, on America’s Left:
Political violence targeting Donald Trump and Elon Musk is becoming increasingly normalized. Following the July 13, 2024 attempted assassination of President Trump, tolerance – and even advocacy – for political violence appears to have surged, especially among politically left-leaning segments of the population. This pattern builds on a broader trend NCRI identified in two December 2024 reports which analyzed how viral social media narratives were legitimizing political violence, particularly in the aftermath of the UnitedHealthcare CEO’s assassination. The reports found widespread justification for lethal violence – including assassination – among younger, highly online, and ideologically left-aligned users. A spillover effect into offline domains is already occurring, as illustrated by a ballot measure recently submitted in California that is macabrely named “the Luigi Mangione Access to Health Care Act.”
How partial to violence are liberals? These charts indicate that around half of those who describe themselves as left of center (from “slightly liberal” on over) say that assassinating Donald Trump or Elon Musk is at least somewhat justified:
This chart is perhaps more informative. It breaks down responses of those considered left of center–“Far Left, Liberal, or Slightly Liberal”–to questions about assassinating Donald Trump and Elon Musk:
So, among those who say they are “slightly liberal” or farther to the left, 9% think the murder of Elon Musk would be “completely justified,” and 13% say the murder of Donald Trump would be “completely justified.” Which suggests that there are a lot of potential assassins out there.
If we take a score of 4 on this chart–midway between “Not at all justified” and “Completely justified”–29% of those who say they are liberals are pretty much OK with murdering Elon Musk, and 41% are OK with murdering President Trump.
We are in uncharted territory. Not many years ago, it would have been inconceivable that a large number of members of either party would tolerate assassinations of their opponents (or firebombing of businesses owned by a political opponent, which is even more broadly supported by liberals). And it is still inconceivable on the right–no significant number of conservatives are calling for the murder of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, or whoever.
Data like these raise, I think, the question whether the United States has a future as a united country. Our schools are so terrible, our culture is so depraved, our “news” media are so pathetic, that what the linked report describes as an “assassination culture” has taken hold of one our major parties. Is there, any longer, a basis on which liberals and conservatives can collaborate, in good faith, in governing a democracy?
I am not at all sure the answer to that question is Yes.
