US leaders could be forced to decide between World War Three or watching Taiwan go down at the hands of China. It comes as relations between Washington and Beijing remain tense after Trump put taxes of 145% on China while Xi Jinping retaliated with a 125% tariff on US imports.
Experts have suggested that the US needs to work out an alternative plan to avoid a “catastrophic” war with China. They say that Trump should prioritise his foreign policy to allow the US to potentially “resupply Taiwan” in order to “grind down” a Chinese invasion.
Defence Priorities’ (DEFP) Jennifer Kavanagh and Carnegie scholar Stephen Wertheim said: “U.S. leaders need a way to escape the ghastly decision to either wage World War III or watch Taiwan go down. They need a third option.”
They added that a World War Three involving the US and China “would likely kill more Americans and destroy more wealth than any conflict since the Vietnam War and perhaps since World War II”. This is even if the war didn’t involve nuclear weapons.
The experts continued: “Washington must make a plan that enables Taiwan to mount a viable self-defense, allows the United States to assist from a distance, and keeps the U.S. position in Asia intact regardless of how a cross-strait conflict concludes.
“Instead of clarifying its commitment to defend Taiwan, Washington should retain an ambiguous stance, rejecting the misguided idea that the United States’ survival and prosperity turn on Taiwan’s political status.”
Taiwan is a critical partner to US economic interests due to its advanced economy and link in manufacturing supply chains. Meanwhile, China is intensifying its coercion of Taiwan which it considers a piece of lost territory.
Although a war between China and the US over Taiwan is not imminent, the future of Taipei will have major implications for Washington. Wertheim said that due to its “limited resources”, the US should consider other ways to protect Taiwan.
He explained: “The United States has limited resources and needs to prioritize its foreign policy. We wanted to think through what an overall concept for U.S. behavior in that situation might be.”
He continued: “The U.S. policy is strategic ambiguity. That’s why in the essay, my co-author and I called for the creation of a third option where the United States could potentially resupply Taiwan, but Taiwan would be able to grind down China’s invasion and make it costly.”
“If Taiwan were acting alone, PRC forces might be able to establish a foothold. But war is a political act, and the goal of Beijing is political control,” Wertheim added. “A well-prepared Taiwan, assisted by international partners, might defeat that goal.”
However, the Quincy Institute’s Michael Swaine argues that Taiwan is not important enough for America to “defend the island at all costs”. He explained that Taiwan’s importance to the US is often overstated.
Swaine said at the Washington Quarterly: “A close examination of [common] assertions of the vital importance of Taiwan to the United States suggests that they rest on very weak foundations.”
He added: “Taiwan is, in fact, not a vital interest of the United States that would justify American efforts to defend the island at all costs, or even to treat it as a formal security partner.”
The US may also be planning to isolate Beijing by seeking rapprochement with Moscow. This method may also help to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine at the hands of Vladmir Putin.
DEFP’s Lyle Goldstein said this method “ignores the broad and deep solidarity that characterizes the China-Russia relationship.”. But, there are “sound reasons to pursue improved relations between Washington and Moscow. First and foremost, there is the humanitarian necessity to stop the awful bloodletting in Ukraine.”
