The Trump administration has laid a peace proposal before Russian and Ukrainian leaders, and has said that the U.S. will walk away from negotiations if an agreement is not reached soon. In my opinion, this is entirely appropriate.
First, what is the American proposal? It corresponds to what many observers have been saying for years would be the rational basis for peace:
* U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea, the forgotten piece of the puzzle. No one seriously pretends that Ukraine is getting Crimea, which was long a part of the Russian Empire, back.
* The lines between Ukraine and Russia will mostly correspond to where the armies currently are, which is what normally happens when peace follows a military stalemate. However, Ukraine will get the land that Russia now occupies in Kharkiv, and will be guaranteed navigation of the Dnieper River.
* Ukraine won’t join NATO, but may join the European Union.
* Ukraine will be given security guarantees by both “European and non-European powers,” presumably us. The details here are important.
There are some other more minor terms, but those are the basics. I think there is good reason to think that this is essentially the deal that could have been struck a long time ago. Some Europeans, recently including French President Macron, object to any loss of Ukrainian territory. I am sympathetic to that position; after all, Russia invaded Ukraine, not the other way around.
But the war has dragged on for more than three years, with probably close to one million casualties. I am about as far from a peacenik as you can get, but isn’t that the paramount fact? Isn’t it time to bring the killing to an end? It seems to me that both Ukraine and Russia would be crazy to prolong this war.
So I hope the Trump/Vance/Rubio peace plan succeeds. I hope that within the next few days, a permanent cease fire will be announced, and the parties will be working on the details of a treaty along the lines outlined above. If that doesn’t happen, then I don’t blame the Trump administration for walking away. This isn’t our war. What happens to our aid to Ukraine at that point is anyone’s guess, but I don’t think the Ukrainians will want to find out.
