Canada’s Conservative party has narrowed the gap with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ruling Liberals to only 3.6 percentage points, just four days before Monday’s national election.
According to a rolling three-day CTV News-Globe and Mail-Nanos poll, the Liberals hold 42.9% support with the Conservatives at 39.3%.
The 3.6-point gap has narrowed significantly from 5.6 points just a day earlier, a significant momentum shift toward opposition leader Pierre Poilievre’s campaign focused on economic concerns and public safety under Liberal governance.
“We can’t afford a fourth Liberal term of rising costs and crime,” Poilievre told reporters in Halifax, Nova Scotia, on Thursday, pledging to scrap electric-vehicle sales mandates, per Reuters.
His campaign has emphasized domestic issues, while Carney has focused heavily on U.S. tariffs and potential “threats” posed by President Trump.
Paul Thomas, a professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba, suggests the polls may be tightening because of the “diminished sense of crisis” regarding relations between the United States and Canada.
He noted that voters’ focus appears to be shifting back to cost-of-living concerns, while Poilievre’s softening of his campaign tone may also be attracting support.
The Conservative surge follows the release of the party’s extensive platform and the two candidates’ debates last week.
In recent years, Canada has implemented a federal carbon tax, stricter gun control measures, and substantially increased immigration targets – policies that opposition parties argue have contributed to the country’s cost-of-living crisis.
While Carney has made United States relations the centerpiece of his campaign, his rhetoric in recent weeks has become increasingly dramatic in an attempt to exploit the fear of American overreach that many Canadians appear to have.
“In this crisis, we have to prepare for America’s threats to our very sovereignty. They want our land, our resources, they want our water, they want our country,” Carney alarmingly declared, per Politico.
Even with a popular vote victory, pollsters caution that the Liberals might secure only a minority government, leaving Carney dependent on smaller parties to govern.
The New Democratic Party, currently polling at 7.2%, could become the kingmaker in a closely contested parliament.
This shift, combined with the Conservative Party’s recently released detailed economic plan, appears to be resonating with voters concerned about domestic issues.
The election represents a clear contrast between Carney’s focus on external threats and international relations versus Poilievre’s emphasis on so0-called kitchen table economic concerns.
With just days remaining before Canadians cast their ballots, both campaigns are intensifying get-out-the-vote efforts in key battleground districts, particularly in suburban areas around Toronto and Vancouver, where elections are typically decided.
The three-day CTV News-Globe and Mail-Nanos poll was conducted among 2,000 eligible voters from April 18 to 21, and has a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, per Reuters.
