A Trump Recession? | Power Line

The financial markets have been tanked by the threat of economic damage from President Trump’s tariffs–or that is the narrative, anyway. Democrats are hoping for a full-blown recession, which they are already labeling the “Trump recession.” But perhaps stocks have mostly pulled back a little from high valuations, as happens all the time.

As of today, the Dow is down 3.3% from January 20, when Trump was inaugurated. The S&P is down 4.6%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ, whose companies are least likely to be affected by tariffs, but whose prices were generally considered to be most over-valued a few months ago, is down 7.9%. Not exactly Black Tuesday territory, and the markets are currently rising.

Financial markets are volatile, but what about the underlying economic realities of Trump’s policies? We are seeing lots of news stories like this one: “Hyundai to Invest $21 Billion in U.S. in Bid to Avoid Trump’s Tariffs.” And this one: “Rolls-Royce explores shifting engine-making to US to counter Trump tariffs.” There have been many more such stories in recent days.

Trump’s tariff threats may even benefit tech companies, as the London Times reports: “Ministers are prepared to scrap an £800 million-a-year tax on American tech companies as part of an economic deal with the US to escape the worst of President Trump’s tariffs.”

Moreover, whatever you think of Trump’s tariffs (or tariff threats) his other policies are undeniably good for the economy. Thus we have this report, also from the U.K.: “Trump tax cuts threaten to cost UK £18bn as companies flee to America.” Of course, Congress will have to actually enact those cuts.

Perhaps more than anything else, Trump’s energy policies will reduce the cost of power for all Americans, cutting costs and saving money on virtually all products and services. Cutting government spending will also eliminate many dead losses from the economy, with funds freed up for more productive uses in the private sector. And last Thursday’s executive order that cuts through red tape to boost domestic mineral production will take a little longer to produce results, but will contribute greatly to America’s economic progress.

In short, don’t fall for the Democrats’ doom and gloom. In Trump’s first administration, there was much hysteria over a looming trade war, but the trade war never actually happened. In fact, customs duty (tariff) collections were higher during Joe Biden’s administration than Trump’s, without a single peep from the press about any alleged “trade war.” Don’t sell the U.S. economy short, especially when irrational governmental restraints are removed.

Don’t sell Tesla short, either. Tesla’s shares closed today at $278.39, up 24% since March 18, when bozo governor Tim Walz told a cheering crowd that he checks Tesla’s declining price to give himself “a little boost during the day.” (And TSLA is up another 1% in after hours trading.) Democrats have been selling Tesla shares in an effort to drive down the price, but two can play that game. This morning I, like many others, bought some TSLA to help push the price up. I have already, on paper, made some money, as have all those who have bought the stock over the last week. I don’t plan to hold my shares for long; I will take a modest profit and get out. But the point will have been made.

The Democrats, as usual, would love to see America fail. But I don’t think it is going to happen.