India and Pakistan seem to move inexorably toward war as rhetoric and retaliatory action were ratcheted up since a bloody massacre of 26 people by the Pakistan-sponsored group called Kashmir Resistance on Tuesday; see Terror in India: Attack Leaves Dozens Dead During JD Vance’s Visit – RedState. This is not the first terror attack in Kashmir, but this one was in a tourist spot, and eyewitness reports say that the gunmen singled out non-Muslims for execution.
Here’s the state of play.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed vengeance. In a rally, he said, “I say to the whole world: India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers.” The backers are, of course, Pakistan’s intelligence and military apparatus.
ADMIN POST.
Modi on Pakistani Islamic terror attack; “India will identify, track and punish every terrorist, their handlers and their backers….
..We will pursue them to the ends of the earth…
..India’s spirit will never be broken by terrorism”! pic.twitter.com/DMGW1QFNao
— Tommy Robinson 🇬🇧 (@TRobinsonNewEra) April 24, 2025
Both countries have ordered visa holders from the other to leave immediately. Both sides have expelled diplomats, but there hasn’t been an official break in diplomatic relations. Pakistan had suspended all trade with India and put Pakistani airspace off limits to Indian aircraft.
The nightly “Beating Retreat” ceremony at the Attari-Wagah border crossing is supposed to end with the gate up and a handshake. That has been suspended.
India has scaled down the iconic Beating Retreat ceremony at the Attari-Wagah border after the deadly attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir.
The symbolic handshake is suspended, gates remain closed, and India is preparing to formally halt the ritual. pic.twitter.com/ayASSIVFyi
— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 24, 2025
The cut point came on Thursday when India cut off Pakistan’s supply of fresh water and announced it was reconsidering the
Indus Waters Treaty.
BIG: India has formally blocked the flow of the Indus River into Pakistan by closing all four gates controlling water via dams and canals.
Pakistan has previously warned that such a blockade would be seen as an act of war. pic.twitter.com/jSFs8U78mH
— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 24, 2025
JUST IN 🔴
India’s Water Resources Minister Patil:
“The government is taking steps to ensure not a single drop of water flows to Pakistan.” pic.twitter.com/pVRV1lAQuF
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 25, 2025
That drew the expected response from Pakistan. Here is a member of parliament, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, telling a rally, “I would like to stand here in Sukkur by the Indus and tell India that the Indus is ours and the Indus will remain ours, whether water flows in this Indus or their blood.”
Pakistani MP Bilawal Bhutto:
Indus is ours, and it will remain ours. Either our water will flow, or Indian blood will. pic.twitter.com/gKtgHBAj6b
— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 26, 2025
India’s lone carrier, the INS Vikrant, has sortied to the Arabian Sea.
Pakistan after spotting INS Vikrant: What’s the return policy on provoking India?
Too late, bro. No refunds, just consequences. 🇮🇳💥#PahelgamTerroristattack
— Hinduism_and_Science (@Hinduism_sci) April 25, 2025
But, like the Grand Old Duke of York, it soon returned to port, allegedly due to a fire in one of its galleys.
BREAKING:
India has pulled back its INS Vikrant aircraft carrier from the Arabian Sea, and it is no longer operationally deployed against Pakistan.
The carrier is currently docked at the INS Karwar naval base. pic.twitter.com/7OejHLdB1h
— Current Report (@Currentreport1) April 27, 2025
India and Pakistan have fought four wars.
- First Indo-Pakistan War (1947-1948): Fought over Jammu and Kashmir after Pakistan-supported tribal militias invaded, leading to the accession of Kashmir to India. Ended with a UN-brokered ceasefire, establishing the Line of Control (LoC).
- Second Indo-Pakistan War (1965): Sparked by Pakistan’s Operation Gibraltar, aiming to infiltrate Jammu and Kashmir. Large-scale battles followed, ending with a UN-mandated ceasefire and the Tashkent Agreement. No significant territorial changes took place.
- Third Indo-Pakistan War (1971): Centered on East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). India intervened in support of Bengali rebels, leading to Pakistan’s surrender and Bangladesh’s independence. The Simla Agreement followed in 1972.
- Kargil War (1999): Pakistan infiltrated the Indian-administered Kargil in Jammu and Kashmir. India launched Operation Vijay, reclaiming the territory after intense fighting. No formal peace treaty was negotiated.
If war breaks out, it is hard to see how this ends well for anyone. Pakistan is not a match for India in conventional warfare, but both nations have nuclear weapons. Pakistan is estimated to have 170 warheads, and India is thought to have 172. Pakistan reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict; India’s policy is that it will only use nuclear weapons if it is attacked with them. This virtually ensures any war turns nuclear, as it is difficult to see how Pakistan’s Army holds off a determined effort by India and would have to go nuclear to prevent a catastrophic defeat. Adding to the uncertainty, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is heavily focused on tactical nuclear weapons while India’s is not. This could lead Pakistan to believe it could use battlefield nukes and not risk a disproportionate nuclear response.
At this point, it is hard to tell what comes next. But it seems to me that shutting off the water supply was a major escalation that it will be difficult for India to climb down from. The odds seem to favor some sort of short border war that does not devolve into an existential event for Pakistan, followed by the bizarre state of normalcy that existed before the terror attack.
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