Reform UK is predicted to become the largest party in Britain, a bombshell new poll has revealed, with Labour “haemorrhaging” seats to its right and left across the country.
New data from pollsters at More In Common has tipped Nigel Farage’s party to secure hundreds of seats in Parliament, more than 80 per cent of which would swing from Labour.
Reform could secure as many as 180 seats, the figures say – 150 of which would change hands from Sir Keir Starmer’s party. Such a result would see Labour and the Tories tied on 165 seats each.
And in a further blow to Labour, nine Cabinet “big beasts” could lose their places in the Commons altogether, with ministers turfed out across the country to Reform on the right and pro-Gaza independents on the left.
Reform could secure as many as 180 seats, the figures say – 150 of which would change hands from Sir Keir Starmer’s party
PA
Labour is projected to lose 153 seats to Reform, 64 to the Conservatives, 23 to the SNP and five to independent candidates.
The nine ministers who would lose their seats to Farage’s party are:
- Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner;
- Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden;
- Home Secretary Yvette Cooper;
- Defence Secretary John Healey;
- Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson;
- Energy Secretary Ed Miliband;
- Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds;
- Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy;
- Chief Whip Alan Campbell.
Meanwhile, Health Secretary Wes Streeting is projected to lose his seat to an independent candidate in Ilford North – despite telling The Spectator just days ago that he would “definitely not” move to a safer seat to protect his Cabinet position.
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Reform would turf out all nine of these Labour ministers, the More In Common poll predicts
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And it’s not just the Government – Conservative frontbenchers Rebecca Harris and Victoria Atkins would both lose their seats to Reform UK, More In Common says.
Luke Tryl, the UK director of More in Common, said: “We are a long way from a General Election and trying to predict the result is a fool’s errand, but what we can say for certain is that as of today, British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level.
“The coalition for change that elected Keir Starmer’s Government has splintered right and left. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK emerges as the biggest winners of this Parliament so far, with our model suggesting that they could well become the largest party in Parliament, something almost unthinkable a year ago.
“Though the party remains a long way from being able to secure a majority, it is clear Reform’s momentum is real and the question is whether their new level of support represents the start of a path to Government or a ceiling that Farage’s polarising brand finds hard to overcome.”
246 Labour seats would flip at a General Election – wiping out Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide majority
MORE IN COMMON
Tryl also warned that Labour now finds itself “on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate” and risks “suffering historic losses in its heartlands”.
Those heartlands could well include Wales – where Labour strongholds in the Valleys could flip turquoise – while Scotland’s central belt and Yorkshire would collapse to the SNP and Reform respectively.
In response to the data, a bullish Farage vowed: “We have all the momentum.”
