President Donald Trump, like one of his heroes Andrew Jackson, was born for a storm.
Trump is disrupting national and international systems that no longer work for the American people. In the domestic realm, he’s launched a political counterrevolution on a scale of change not seen since the New Deal. But it isn’t just on the home front that Trump is making the greatest pivot.
He’s dramatically shifting the global chess board. Instead of coasting on the “postwar order” that long ago morphed into the failing and incoherent post-Cold War order, Trump is using America’s still-considerable position in the world to reorient the focus of our national security. He’s doing this by using the skill that he long ago became famous for and that so many of his critics misunderstand.
Start with a big ask, create a sense of urgency, use leverage, don’t back down, make things happen. That’s how Trump is getting this all done. It’s the art of the deal, and it’s funny that so many commentators miss this given that Trump wrote a famous book about it and has been pulling off deals in the public eye for decades.
What the 47th president is doing is renegotiating America’s position vis-à-vis both our international rivals and our allies. Whether it be on tariffs, or acquiring Greenland, or securing the Panama Canal, or peace with Russia and Iran, Trump is clearly aiming to reset America’s international situation.
He’s doing this, I believe, to ensure that the United States and not Communist China will remain the most dominant country globally going forward.
Why the Push for Greenland?
Let’s take the Greenland issue for instance.
Greenland may seem irrelevant, but its position on the globe and considerable natural resources vital to a modern economy make it extremely important for U.S. security. Acquiring it would send a message to Americans that we are thinking big once again and a message to Russia and China that the U.S. means to prevent them from dominating the Arctic and threatening the U.S. mainland.
The U.S. has sought to acquire the massive Arctic island since at least the 1860s. When William H. Seward bought Alaska, he really wanted Greenland too. The U.S. became close to buying Greenland a few other times, but ultimately Denmark held onto it.
Trump’s aggressive words may have unsettled U.S. relations with Denmark in the short term, but maybe that’s what’s needed to create pressure and a sense of urgency to get a deal done. Trump knows that the U.S. can offer Greenland more than any other nation, he can make the territory rich and provide long-term defense. It’s now more likely than ever that Greenland with go independent and fall under U.S. sway in one way or another.
Why the Focus on Panama?
Now consider Panama. The Panama Canal has long been critical for American national security. Perhaps we should have never given it to Panama after building it in the first place, but here we are.
It’s clear that China has made major inroads into subtly influencing Panama. A Hong Kong-based company controls ports on both sides of the canal. What would happen if they even just delayed U.S. ships during a sudden military conflict in the Pacific? Not good.
Trump’s strong rhetoric about retaking the canal and putting immediate pressure on the country has forced them to act. The Hong Kong company sold those ports (and over 40 others around the globe) to an American-led group of companies. China has blocked the sale, but there is a good chance that a deal will go through at some point.
Panama has abandoned China’s Belt and Road investments and even recently agreed to allow some U.S. troops to be stationed in the country. The Panamanian government would clearly rather remain in the good graces of the U.S. rather than kowtow to China.
The Monroe Doctrine is back and it should have never gone away.
Why the Hardball on Trade?
Of course, where Trump has operated most dramatically and has taken the greatest risk is on trade. Trump threatened to put significant tariffs on virtually every nation on earth. This sent markets and countless political commentators into a panic. But at seemingly the last minute, Trump adjusted and froze the highest tariffs. He kept an enormous 145% tariff on China.
The turbulent tariff talk has resulted in China being economically singled out. U.S. trade partners around the globe are offering to reduce their tariffs on U.S. goods out of concern about losing access to the American domestic market. Countries are now being pushed into the position of doing business with China or America. And they can’t go back to being pass-throughs for Chinese goods.
The international trade system that China, a communist dictatorship, was mistakenly allowed to enter is being partitioned. And not a moment too soon since China now owns an enormous amount of the world’s most critical manufacturing, which could be easily converted to military power.
That China has responded to Trump’s tariffs by restricting trade of vital resources to the U.S. and posting old, grainy images of Chairman Mao Zedong, one of the greatest mass murderers in history, drive home the necessity of Trump’s moves.
The conscious decoupling from China should have happened long ago. Through his aggressive actions on trade, Trump is making sure it happens for real this time.
To use a sports metaphor, Trump is behaving like a big market sports general manager. He isn’t trying to use the “Moneyball” tactics of a small market team to find market inefficiencies. Instead, he’s using the enormous leverage of the U.S., due to it still being the richest and most powerful country on earth, to maximize what can be gained from any deal with any country, including China.
He’s not looking for the most efficient deals, he’s looking for the best deals that will extend our dynasty.
Risky, But Necessary Moves
Trump’s moves come with considerable risks. We risk alienating long-term allies, we risk isolating ourselves economically and falling into a recession, we risk a potential confrontation with China that we aren’t prepared for. But these risks are worth taking if they ultimately put the U.S. on better footing going forward. And it’s hard to see any kind of fundamental change in the way America does business unless dramatic changes occur across the board right now.
Former President Joe Biden slept walked through his term in office. The national security state operated on autopilot while the U.S. became indirectly embroiled in multiple conflicts without a larger strategic game plan. The lessons of the COVID-19 crisis where the threat of dependence on China became so obvious were quickly forgotten.
During his time out of office, Trump did not forget. He’s using the art of the deal once again to reshape our future and hopefully initiate another American golden age.
