What’s Trump Doing In Ukraine?

At the outset of the Trump administration, I was confident that he would broker a peace between the exhausted combatants, Russia and Ukraine. I thought he would deserve, although of course he would not receive, the Nobel Peace Prize. But more recently, things seem to have gone sideways.

This report from the London Times reflects a European perspective, but the facts are concerning: “Trump demands control of Ukraine’s minerals and oil.”

President Trump has demanded Ukraine forfeit control of its minerals, oil and gas as the price for continued US support.

A draft deal suggests the US president has hardened his demands as he seeks to extract a greater share of Ukraine’s mineral wealth in exchange for American weapons.

Ukrainian officials baulked at the revised deal, with one saying it amounted to “robbery”.

The deal, first reported by the Financial Times, proposes transferring all of Ukraine’s mineral resources, including oil and gas, as well as major Ukrainian energy infrastructure into a joint investment fund. The income would be split between the US and Ukraine. The US would appoint three of the five board members, giving the White House overall control of the fund.

Draconian? Yes, it would seem so. Meanwhile, Europeans think Trump is going easy on Russia:

Supposedly, Moscow and Kyiv have agreed a truce in the Black Sea as well as an end to attacks on energy infrastructure. However, after a meeting between US and Russian negotiators in Saudi Arabia earlier this week, Putin issued a fresh set of demands. The Kremlin has insisted that Europe must lift sanctions on Rosselkhozbank, the Russian state agricultural bank, and restore its access to the Swift international payment system headquartered in Brussels, before the ceasefire can begin.

Following that summit in Riyadh, British officials were left dismayed by a US statement promising to “help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertiliser exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions”.

“There is no hiding the fact that the US is taking a different approach to us,” one [British] government source said.

President Trump seems to have believed, initially, that Ukraine’s Zelensky was a tougher obstacle to peace than Russia’s Putin. And that view probably was hardened by Zelensky’s unfortunate performance, apparently egged on by Senate Democrats, before the press in the White House. But, whatever merit that belief might have had at one point, it does not appear to be true today.

Events are moving toward a cease fire, but Russia is naturally holding out for everything it can get. The time to apply maximum pressure to Putin’s regime arrived some time ago.

Meanwhile, a postscript: Zelensky says that Vladimir Putin “will die soon — that’s a fact — and it will all be over.” Does Zelensky have inside information on Putin’s health? Possibly, but I doubt it. And, in any event, Russia’s history offers no ground for optimism that whoever follows Putin will be an improvement.